Sheboygan, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

572
FXUS63 KMKX 141158
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
558 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog & frost remain possible through the rest of
  tonight, particularly in low-lying spots. Can`t rule out an
  isolated slick spot on untreated surfaces.

- High temperatures remaining 5-15+ degrees above normal
  Saturday through Wednesday.

- Widespread rain expected (~50-80+% chances) Tuesday night
  through Wednesday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
  Some snow could mix in, especially north.

- Additional precipitation expected (~40-60% chances) Thursday
  into Friday, with snow being favored as the main precip type.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 554 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Forecast details remain on track. Fog/haze should stick around
for a few hours after dawn before mixing out. Expect a mild day
with highs in the low to mid 50s. High clouds will be more
numerous today as a storm system passes to our south along the
Ohio River Valley.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1152 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rest of Tonight through Saturday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: An upper shortwave ridge is moving into the
western Great Lakes late this evening, with an accompanying area of
surface high pressure building in from the Mississippi River Valley.
Clear skies thus prevail across southern Wisconsin, with recent
temperature trends indicating that efficient radiational cooling is
in-progress. Combined with light to calm surface winds through the
remainder of the overnight hours, said radiational cooling could
lead to patchy fog or frost development through daybreak,
particularly in low-lying spots. With temperatures hovering at or
below freezing, an isolated slick spot is possible on any untreated
surfaces in locations experiencing patchy fog/frost. Be sure to slow
down & allow for extra following distance if encountering patchy fog
on the roads through sunrise. High pressure will continue to move
east on Saturday, with light south to southwesterly winds allowing
for another afternoon of mild high temperatures. Winds will become a
touch stronger Saturday night into Sunday as a weak surface front
approaches the region from the west. No precipitation is expected as
the front approaches & begins to work into southern Wisconsin late
Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

Rest of Tonight: Will be monitoring for patchy fog or frost
development through daybreak, particularly in low-lying spots
susceptible to cold air drainage. Due in large part to broad
subsidence beneath the approaching shortwave ridge, considerable
drying of the profile has occurred above the boundary layer through
early evening, which will help to preclude a more widespread fog
threat outside of low-lying areas. An isolated slick spot remains
possible in spots experiencing frost/fog with temperatures at/below
freezing. Slow down if encountering patchy fog on the roads through
daybreak. Any fog/frost development will quickly dissipate after
sunrise.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1152 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Synopsis: South to southwest winds will become re-established Sunday
evening through Monday as high pressure shifts east of Lake
Michigan. Winds will be brisk through Monday afternoon, allowing for
renewed low level warm air advection & the warmest temperatures of
the entire forecast period. February 16 record high temperatures may
be challenged, particularly in inland locations that are further
removed from the colder waters of Lake Michigan. An upper
disturbance remains on track to eject into the Northern Plains on
Tuesday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis over the South Dakota-
Nebraska vicinity. The disturbance and surface low will pull into
the western Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, with global
forecast guidance depicting an envelope of system tracks spanning
from the Wisconsin-Illinois border to central Wisconsin. Where
precisely the upper energy and surface low track will greatly
influence low level temperature profiles across southern Wisconsin
Tuesday night through Wednesday, which will in turn greatly
influence any embedded thunder potential as well as the possibility
of rain-snow mix. Tuesday night - Wednesday system track will thus
be a trend to monitor closely in coming forecasts. Winds will shift
northerly behind departing low pressure Wednesday night into
Thursday, allowing surface temperatures to trend back toward mid-
February normals. Additional precipitation chances---with snow being
the primary p-type---enter the forecast later Thursday into Friday
as a second disturbance moves across the western Great Lakes.

Monday: Continue to expect that this will be warmest day of the
entire forecast period as an unseasonably mild air mass advects into
the region from the Central Plains. Global ensemble guidance
continues to suggest that said air mass will run temperatures
anywhere between 15 to 20+ degrees above mid-February normals by the
afternoon hours. Current high temperature forecast from the NBM thus
appears reasonable, which depicts readings in the low to mid-50s
across the northeast with readings in the upper 50s and low 60s
further south and west. If said forecast verifies, records (57 at
MSN in 1981; 56 at MKE in 1921) would be challenged and potentially
broken, particularly at inland locations. Will continue to monitor
temperature trends for possible adjustments as this portion of the
period draws closer.

Tuesday night through Wednesday: The first of two organized
disturbances remains on track to cross the western Great Lakes,
bringing widespread precipitation chances to southern Wisconsin.
Precipitation will be encouraged by lift from the encroaching upper
wave, in addition to warm advection/isentropic ascent &
frontogenesis in the lower part of the atmosphere. All the above
forcing mechanisms are progged to have at least some residence time
across southern Wisconsin, which is translating to the higher
confidence precip probabilities in NBM output. Of lower confidence,
however, is whether any thunder or snow will mix in with an
anticipated predominant p-type of rain. Both of these possible mix-
ins will be dictated in large part by the precise track of the
passing surface low, with a track through central Wisconsin favoring
milder conditions with all rain & embedded thunder. A track closer
to the Wisconsin-Illinois border, however, would allow result in
cooler overall temperatures, with readings becoming cold enough for
rain-snow mix to the north of I-94 (particularly before sunrise
Wednesday). Precise system track will thus be the key forecast
question to answer over the coming updates. Will provide additional
details---particularly related to any possible snow accumulation or
hazards extending beyond general thunder---as system track clarifies
through this weekend.

Thursday through Friday: Additional precip chances enter the
forecast as a second disturbance moves across the region. With
temperatures trending cooler behind the mid-week system, guidance is
pointing toward more/all snow in this batch of precip. While too
early to offer specific details regarding snow totals, probabilistic
guidance is signaling some potential for light accumulation in this
activity.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 556 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light fog generally 4SM and above will linger until a few hours
after dawn. Then expect VFR conditions through today into
tonight amid light and variable to light southerly winds. No
precipitation is expected.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1152 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Generally west-southwest winds are being observed over Lake Michigan
this evening as 1016 mb high pressure approaches from the upper
Mississippi River Valley. Winds will trend northwesterly to light &
variable overnight as the aforementioned area of high pressure
approaches the waters. Winds will trend south to southwesterly as
the high shifts east Saturday afternoon, increasing slightly
Saturday night as a weak cold front approaches from the west. The
front will cross the waters Sunday morning, bringing a brief
northwest wind shift into Sunday afternoon. Winds will trend back
southwesterly Sunday night through Monday as 1008 mb low pressure
moves toward the Hudson Bay.

Stronger low pressure near 990 mb will form over the northern Great
Plains during the day on Tuesday, resulting in increasing east to
southeasterly winds over Lake Michigan. Winds will continue to
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low approaches and
eventually crosses Lake Michigan. The low will progress east of the
waters Wednesday afternoon & evening, resulting in a gusty east-
northeast wind shift Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Periodic gale force gusts are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, with trends being monitored for possible headlines over
coming forecasts. Rain and snow will accompany the
approaching/passing low Tuesday evening through Thursday, with a few
rumbles of thunder possible Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Pockets of light to moderate freezing spray are possible late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning over the northern half of the
waters.

Forecast confidence is increasing for a second area of low pressure
near or below 1000 mb to develop over the middle Mississippi River
Valley Thursday evening, with the feature tracking over or just
south of the southern open waters early Friday morning. The
development and passage of the low would bring increasing east-
northeast wind gusts Thursday night through Friday morning, with
additional gale force gusts possible over the southern half of Lake
Michigan. Trends will be monitored for potential additional
headlines over coming forecasts. Additional snow will accompany the
passing low, along with some light to moderate freezing spray.

Largely benign conditions prevail in nearshore zones through the
beginning of next week. Winds and waves will steadily increase ahead
of approaching low pressure Tuesday night through Thursday,
resulting in a likely period of Small Craft Advisory conditions
through the middle week period. The need for potential headlines
will be evaluated as this portion of the period draws closer. Rain
and eventually some rain-snow mix will accompany the
approaching/passing low Tuesday night through Thursday, with a few
rumbles of thunder possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Additional Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Thursday
night into Friday as a second area of low pressure passes over or
just south of Lake Michigan.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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